CoachCox

Ironman Lanzarote 2016: Results and Analysis

The pace of Ironman racing is starting to pick up now. For the next few months most weekends will bring me at least one race to analyse. This time it’s Ironman Lanzarote, one of – if not the – toughest Ironman on the calendar. Lanzarote celebrated it’s twenty-fifth anniversary this year although that didn’t bring any extra Kona slots – a standard 40 were available across the age groups. This year’s race looks to have trended slightly slower than course norms.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman Lanzarote 2016 Compared With 2008-2015

Comparing this year’s split distributions with previous races and each discipline trends slightly slower. The differences aren’t big, it’s a small shift at each stage that accumulates into a slower overall result set. Margins are small here and don’t suggest significant differences in difficulty or quality of the field at this year’s race.

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman Lanzarote
Listed Athletes Swim Finish Swim DNS/DNF Bike Finish Bike DNF Run Finish Run DNF Overall DNS/DNF
2008 1242 1201 3.3% 1175 2.2% 1115 5.1% 10.1%
2009 1349 1226 9.1% 1210 1.3% 1147 5.2% 14.8%
2010 1571 1383 12% 1348 2.5% 1285 4.7% 18.1%
2011 1469 1281 12.8% 1254 2.1% 1199 4.4% 18.3%
2012 1691 1540 8.9% 1510 1.9% 1445 4.3% 14.4%
2013 1916 1759 8.2% 1708 2.9% 1646 3.6% 14.1%
2014 2258 2092 7.4% 2031 2.9% 1906 6.2% 15.6%
2015 1786 1614 9.6% 1524 5.6% 1462 4.1% 18.1%
2016 1888 1755 7% 1724 1.8% 1642 4.8% 13%

Bearing in mind the difficulty in separating DNS from DNF in the athlete tracker, meaning swim and overall percentages are a combination of the two, rates were lower than average this year. Bike DNFs in particular were down on previous years with a very small lift in DNFs on the run. While it’s a tough bike course in Lanzarote it’s also a single lap; even if you’re struggling to race it can be quicker to get back to T2 under your own power than pull out on the course.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Lanzarote 2016
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Lanzarote 2008-2015

Comparing median splits across the age groups shows how small and variable the differences in times are. The bike is most consistently slower, but generally by a small percentage of the overall time. Swim and run are less consistent in their pattern, often slower, but a few age groups trended faster this year.

Top 10 Nationalities at Ironman Lanzarote
Count Percentage
Spain 734 38.9
United Kingdom 424 22.5
Germany 148 7.8
France 82 4.3
Italy 59 3.1
Ireland 53 2.8
Belgium 52 2.8
Denmark 45 2.4
Argentinia 31 1.6
Netherlands 30 1.6

The majority of the field in Lanza were Spanish with a significant number of Brits forming the second largest group. I need to complete development on this table so we can start to see where the Kona slots head.

Changes in Male Age Group Finishing Times by Place at Ironman Lanzarote
Changes in Female Age Group Finishing Times by Place at Ironman Lanzarote

To confirm that this year’s race didn’t vary much from Lanzarote norms we can track how finish times have changed over a number of years. They’ve largely been consistent, especially in the largest age groups. This year may trend slower than the aggregated data in the charts above, but it was faster than last year’s event.

Ironman Lanzarote 2016 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
  Slots Winner Average Kona Qualifier Final Qualifier
M18-24 1 9:50:16 9:50:16 9:50:16
M25-29 2 9:31:14 9:33:24 9:35:34
M30-34 4 9:27:04 9:38:44 9:55:50
M35-39 5 9:24:24 9:33:53 9:43:28
M40-44 5 9:29:19 9:44:26 10:03:40
M45-49 4 10:22:59 10:31:44 10:37:49
M50-54 3 10:03:18 10:15:50 10:30:08
M55-59 2 10:39:11 10:43:23 10:47:35
M60-64 1 11:13:14 11:13:14 11:13:14
M65-69 1 12:13:27 12:13:27 12:13:27
F18-24 1 12:12:58 12:12:58 12:12:58
F25-29 1 11:23:11 11:23:11 11:23:11
F30-34 1 10:48:22 10:48:22 10:48:22
F35-39 1 11:04:00 11:04:00 11:04:00
F40-44 2 11:01:00 11:04:52 11:08:45
F45-49 1 11:01:36 11:01:36 11:01:36
F50-54 1 11:59:08 11:59:08 11:59:08
F55-59 1 12:35:04 12:35:04 12:35:04
F60-64 1 15:51:51 15:51:51 15:51:51

Based on my calculation for slot allocation (as ever actual numbers likely varied dependent on final start numbers) the table above shows the automatic qualifying times at this year’s race. For context you can see data on previous qualifying times for Lanzarote and other Ironman races on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Lanzarote 2016
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Lanzarote 2016

For the top twenty in each age group this year’s race didn’t deviate too far from the average finishing times. It does look like Kona qualifiers, those at the very front of their age group, came in a touch faster than average, but generally the differences aren’t too big. The most notable exception is the F40-44 age group where the top twenty posted some of the fastest finishing times from the last 9 years of racing in Lanzarote.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results and splits from Ironman Lanzarote 2016 on my Google Drive.

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