CoachCox

Ironman Taiwan 2016: Results and Kona Qualification Analysis

Next in a busy weekend of Ironman racing is Ironman Taiwan. Only in it’s second year a change of date means it skipped a qualifying year, with last year being a qualifier for 2015 and this year a qualifier for 2017. It’s a relatively small race and comes with only 25 Kona slots, the lowest at any Ironman event. So with no more than 2 slots available to any age group it’s never going to be the best choice for a qualifier.

It’s worth noting that as I worked on this analysis I spotted errors in my 2015 data, I’d missed a section of slower runners. I’ve freshly retrieved the 2015 data for the following charts.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman Taiwan 2016 Compared with 2015

Overall this year’s race was somewhat slower than 2015, with most of that coming from a slower run. The swim was also slower, but the bike was largely comparable. The difference in run times is enough to create a roughly 30-40 minute slower race this year.

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman Taiwan
Listed Athletes Swim Finish Swim DNS/DNF Bike Finish Bike DNF Run Finish Run DNF Overall DNS/DNF
2015 1023 888 13.2% 871 1.9% 815 6.4% 20.3%
2016 922 916 0.7% 881 3.8% 802 9% 13%

It looks like DNS figures are not part of this year’s numbers. The clear difference we can see is the higher DNF rate on the bike and run. Allowing for the fact that the 2015 numbers include DNS that would suggest this year’s race had a higher DNF rate overall. It seems conditions made have been tougher.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Taiwan 2016
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Taiwan 2015

Comparing median splits the male pros give an indication of a tougher run. While swim and bike times are largely the same, the median run is significantly slower for the pros. For most age groups the trend is slower swim, much slower run and a similar or slightly faster bike.

The athlete tracker didn’t include any country information for the athletes, so I’ve not been able to breakdown the nationalities at this race.

Changes in Male Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Taiwan
Changes in Female Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Taiwan

With very few exceptions every position across all the age groups trended slower this year. The entire field raced slower than in 2015.

Ironman Taiwan 2016 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
  Slots Winner Average Kona Qualifier Final Qualifier
M18-24 1 11:07:27 11:07:27 11:07:27
M25-29 2 9:45:29 10:03:21 10:21:14
M30-34 2 10:06:33 10:10:43 10:14:53
M35-39 2 10:01:44 10:06:52 10:12:01
M40-44 2 10:05:56 10:07:25 10:08:55
M45-49 2 11:07:42 11:08:13 11:08:44
M50-54 1 10:55:19 10:55:19 10:55:19
M55-59 1 12:12:56 12:12:56 12:12:56
M60-64 1 12:03:44 12:03:44 12:03:44
M65-69 1 13:14:10 13:14:10 13:14:10
F18-24 1 14:55:45 14:55:45 14:55:45
F25-29 1 12:42:34 12:42:34 12:42:34
F30-34 1 12:08:59 12:08:59 12:08:59
F35-39 1 11:33:05 11:33:05 11:33:05
F40-44 1 10:59:26 10:59:26 10:59:26
F45-49 1 12:07:23 12:07:23 12:07:23
F50-54 1 12:25:51 12:25:51 12:25:51
F55-59 1 12:19:00 12:19:00 12:19:00
F60-64 1 15:58:53 15:58:53 15:58:53

The table above contains my estimated Kona slot allocation and for those slot numbers the automatic qualification times. It doesn’t account for roll down in any way. You can compare this with other races on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Taiwan 2016
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Taiwan 2016

In each age group’s top twenty finishers this year’s times are generally slower. However, it’s also worth noting that this so strongly the case for those who might grab one of the very limited slots. Here time differences tend to be smaller.

Overall Taiwan is a slow race, this year we slightly slower than the last. It’s a challenging qualifier given the very low number of slots given to the event.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results and splits from Ironman Taiwan 2016 on my Google Drive.

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Find out what it takes to place in your age group or to qualify for the Ironman Worlds Championships in Kona.

Comments

  • Darren Cole

    Coach Cox…I just came across this! Great analysis and thanks. I was 3rd in M40 this year and fortunately for me there were 3 spots in this AG. (Also 3 in M35) The reason I suspect is there were no finishers in the oldest AGs. As for the times…41 degrees on the run course….brutal conditions that made the run a true slog.