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Ironman North Carolina 2016: Age Group Results and Kona Analysis

Ironman North Carolina debuted over the weekend with an abridge course, the consequence of Hurricane Matthew’s damage in the state. While the full swim and run remained the bike course was shortened to 50 miles. As a first time race and with this major change to the course I can’t really analyse the results in detail or put them in the context of other Ironman races.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman North Carolina 2016

Every split at this race is faster than usual. The swim appears to have been particularly quick and at 50 miles you can’t compare bike times to other Ironman races. The run is probably the closest to a standard distribution, but even then, the shortened course would have meant athletes were less fatigued and better fuelled to start.

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman North Carolina
Listed Athletes Swim Finish Swim DNS/DNF Bike Finish Bike DNF Run Finish Run DNF Overall DNS/DNF
2016 1561 1160 25.7% 1157 0.3% 1128 2.5% 27.7%

Remembering that both DNS and DNF numbers are counted in the swim data it looks like the DNS rate at this race was particularly high. For those who did participate though, the DNF rates on the reduced course were, not surprisingly, low.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman North Carolina 2016

The medians above show the fast splits yet again. There’s no comparison to be usefully made here so they’re presented for interest.

Ironman North Carolina 2016 Predicted Kona Qualifiers by Country
Country Percentage of Slots Percentage of Field
United States 100.0 90.9

All qualifiers at this event look to have come from the US (assuming no roll downs). The race itself only had 30 slots on offer so there were relatively few to go round anyway.

Top 10 Nationalities at Ironman North Carolina
Count Percentage
United States 1419 90.9
Canada 34 2.2
United Kingdom 18 1.2
Mexico 10 0.6
Colombia 7 0.4
Ireland 6 0.4
Dominican Republic 6 0.4
Germany 5 0.3
Puerto Rico 5 0.3
Ecuador 4 0.3

The race itself was also largely made up of US athletes too, with a handful of other countries completing the remaining numbers.

Ironman North Carolina 2016 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
  Slots Winner Average Kona Qualifier Final Qualifier
M18-24 1 7:11:14 7:11:14 7:11:14
M25-29 1 6:31:00 6:31:00 6:31:00
M30-34 2 6:17:52 6:28:41 6:39:30
M35-39 2 6:24:07 6:36:15 6:48:24
M40-44 2 6:08:58 6:27:22 6:45:46
M45-49 2 6:50:29 6:56:27 7:02:26
M50-54 2 6:22:07 6:43:52 7:05:38
M55-59 1 7:28:09 7:28:09 7:28:09
M60-64 1 8:14:11 8:14:11 8:14:11
M65-69 1 9:00:11 9:00:11 9:00:11
M70-74 1 10:47:59 10:47:59 10:47:59
M75-79 1 10:40:38 10:40:38 10:40:38
F18-24 1 7:29:50 7:29:50 7:29:50
F25-29 1 7:09:58 7:09:58 7:09:58
F30-34 1 7:15:51 7:15:51 7:15:51
F35-39 1 6:53:13 6:53:13 6:53:13
F40-44 2 7:15:44 7:26:33 7:37:23
F45-49 2 7:25:36 7:37:53 7:50:11
F50-54 1 7:49:32 7:49:32 7:49:32
F55-59 1 8:47:13 8:47:13 8:47:13
F60-64 1 8:53:20 8:53:20 8:53:20
F65-69 1 11:22:16 11:22:16 11:22:16
F70-74 1 13:24:04 13:24:04 13:24:04

The above table contains my expected Kona slot distribution based on athlete tracker numbers, actual start numbers determine the final distribution. I’ve then given automatic qualifying times assuming no roll down takes place. Obviously these are much faster than usual qualifying times, which you can review on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman North Carolina 2016
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman North Carolina 2016

The final two graphs show the times of the top twenty of each age group. We don’t have any other times to offer in comparison and as we know the shortened course results in seemingly fast times. If I make any observation it’s that many of these curves are quite steep with a big shift in time between first and twentieth and often a sharp jump to first place. In normal circumstances that would suggest the front of pack was relatively thin.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results and splits from Ironman North Carolina 2016 on my Google Drive.

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A growing collection of results and statistics for the whole Ironman race calendar.

Find out what it takes to place in your age group or to qualify for the Ironman Worlds Championships in Kona.

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