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Ironman Santa Rosa 2017: Age Group Results and Kona Qualification

Ironman Santa Rosa is new to the Ironman calendar and as such I don’t have historical data to compare it against. As a first time Ironman it has the standard 40 Kona slots and attracted a decent field of over 2,000 athletes.

The lack of historical results limits the analysis a little, but I’ve chosen to use Ironman Texas 2017 as a comparator. In theory, as the US Championship race, it should draw a good quality and consistent field for comparison. Practically I’m not sure how much difference a championship title and extra Kona slots makes to the age group race. It gives a point of reference though.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman Santa Rosa 2017 Compared with Ironman Texas 2017

Santa Rosa did have a faster swim than Texas, but otherwise it was a slower race. This is particularly true at the front, the different in the 5th percentile times between the two is larger than at the median. Probably a reflection that Texas does attract more fast athletes for Kona slots. At the median the time are only slightly slower in comparison.

DNF Rates at Selected 2017 Ironman Races
Listed Athletes Swim Finish Swim DNF Bike Finish Bike DNF Run Finish Run DNF Overall DNS/DNF
Santa Rosa 1886 1853 1.7% 1801 2.8% 1706 5.3% 9.3%
Texas 2346 2346 0% 2275 3% 2205 3.1% 6%
South Africa 1898 1877 1.1% 1830 2.5% 1757 4% 7.4%
Frankfurt 2740 2702 1.4% 2621 3% 2432 7.2% 11.2%
Cairns 1112 1112 0% 1086 2.3% 1041 4.1% 7.2%
Brazil 2207 2196 0.5% 2140 2.6% 2083 2.7% 6.3%

Comparing DNF rates against all the championship races of 2017 puts Santa Rosa at the higher end of the numbers. This appears to be largely due to run DNFs. Although it’s on the high side in this comparisons, these figures are far from extreme for an Ironman.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Santa Rosa 2017
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Texas 2017

As with the distributions, median splits for age groups tend to be slower in Santa Rosa.

Top 10 Nationalities at Ironman Santa Rosa
Count Percentage
United States 1820 84.8
Canada 41 1.9
United Kingdom 35 1.6
Japan 33 1.5
Mexico 26 1.2
Philippines 26 1.2
Puerto Rico 13 0.6
Australia 11 0.5
France 11 0.5
Brazil 10 0.5
Ironman Santa Rosa 2017 Predicted Kona Qualifiers by Country
Country Percentage of Slots Percentage of Field
United States 85.0 84.8
Ireland 2.5 0.2
Argentinia 2.5 0.2
Belgium 2.5 0.1
Mexico 2.5 1.2
Colombia 2.5 0.2

As you’d expect this was a largely US dominated race with a small mix of other nationalities present. The majority of slots went to the US competitors in proportion to their number.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Santa Rosa 2017
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Santa Rosa 2017

For the majority of age groups the top twenty times in Santa Rosa are much slower than those in Texas. A few age groups buck this trend, but it’s consistent across the biggest divisions. The drop off in times for the top twenty is generally steeper too, suggesting a shallower field at Santa Rosa. Clearly the championship race attracts a stronger field with its additional Kona slots.

Ironman Santa Rosa 2017 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
  Slots Winner Average Kona Qualifier Final Qualifier
M18-24 1 8:53:44 8:53:44 8:53:44
M25-29 2 9:01:57 9:06:16 9:10:35
M30-34 3 9:15:20 9:22:52 9:27:46
M35-39 3 9:12:15 9:23:05 9:29:07
M40-44 3 9:19:46 9:28:15 9:43:07
M45-49 3 9:59:24 10:06:43 10:11:32
M50-54 3 10:10:39 10:17:27 10:26:47
M55-59 2 10:03:05 10:26:11 10:49:18
M60-64 1 10:41:10 10:41:10 10:41:10
M65-69 1 11:10:13 11:10:13 11:10:13
M70-74 1 13:29:29 13:29:29 13:29:29
M75-79 1 16:21:59 16:21:59 16:21:59
F18-24 1 11:23:45 11:23:45 11:23:45
F25-29 1 10:34:06 10:34:06 10:34:06
F30-34 2 9:58:45 10:09:48 10:20:51
F35-39 2 10:23:39 10:26:24 10:29:10
F40-44 2 10:36:10 10:36:30 10:36:50
F45-49 2 10:36:41 10:40:47 10:44:53
F50-54 2 11:02:03 11:03:41 11:05:20
F55-59 1 11:13:32 11:13:32 11:13:32
F60-64 1 12:12:35 12:12:35 12:12:35
F65-69 1 14:47:31 14:47:31 14:47:31

I’ll finish with the table of Kona qualifying times. Based on the results list I’ve estimated the slot allocation in Santa Rosa and what that would predict for automatic qualifying times. In practice this may vary and roll downs will impact the final qualifying times. You can compare these with other races on my Kona qualification page.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results from Ironman Santa Rosa 2017 on my Google Drive.

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