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Ironman Santa Rosa 2018: Age Group Results and Kona Qualification

Ironman Santa Rosa took place over the weekend. It’s a mid-sized age group race (no professional field) with the standard 40 Kona slots on offer for the 2018 Ironman World Championship. This is only it’s second year on the Ironman calendar so this analysis is limited to a comparison with last year’s results. This year’s race was much faster at the front, but saw similar trends further back in the field.

The original version of this post used incorrect run data, this has now been corrected.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman Santa Rosa 2018 Compared with 2017

This years race trended faster at the front (top 10% of the field), but the overall median finishing time is very close to the year before. The bike distribution trends slower from the middle of the pack back, the median bike split is much slower this year, but the front is unaffected by the course change. The run distribution sees the largest change – faster across the field, but most significantly towards the front of the race. The field at this race is very widely spread with a fast front-of-pack, but also large numbers in the back-of-pack too.

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman Santa Rosa
Year
Listed Athletes
Swim Finish
Swim DNS/DNF
Bike Finish
Bike DNF
Run Finish
Run DNF
Overall DNS/DNF
2017
1886
1853
1.7%
1801
2.8%
1706
5.3%
9.3%
2018
1580
1545
2.2%
1487
3.8%
1422
4.4%
10.8%

The DNF rate increased slightly for this year’s race. Mostly from bike and swim. Run conditions appear to have been particularly favourable – both giving faster times and a lower DNF rate at that stage.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Santa Rosa 2018
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Santa Rosa 2017

Individual age group medians vary for swim and bike aren’t too dissimilar to the previous year, with the bike tending to be a touch slower. Run medians are faster as we’d expect from the distribution chart.

Top 10 Nationalities at Ironman Santa Rosa
Country
Count
Percentage
United States
1417
77.3
Canada
69
3.8
Mexico
53
2.9
Japan
35
1.9
United Kingdom
30
1.6
Philippines
21
1.1
France
17
0.9
Brazil
13
0.7
Germany
11
0.6
China
10
0.5
Ironman Santa Rosa 2018 Predicted Kona Qualifiers by Country
Country
Percentage of Slots
Percentage of Field
United States
72.5
77.3
Canada
7.5
3.8
Czech Republic
2.5
0.2
New Zealand
2.5
0.3
Mexico
2.5
2.9
France
2.5
0.9
Germany
2.5
0.6
Netherlands
2.5
0.1
Ireland
2.5
0.5

Santa Rosa pulls in a number of nationalities. Slots tended to be taken in line with athlete numbers.

Changes in Male Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Santa Rosa
Changes in Female Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Santa Rosa

Fitting with the pattern from the distribution we see that times for given places in age groups have generally improved this year, but that this change is most significant towards the front. In some age groups, as we’re further back in the field the times drop back. This could come from the reduction in athlete numbers this year, with fewer athletes 100th place may be further back in the field.

Ironman Santa Rosa 2018 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
Age Group
Slots
Winner
Average Kona Qualifier
Final Qualifier
M18-24
1
10:01:27
10:01:27
10:01:27
M25-29
2
08:58:29
09:02:08
09:05:47
M30-34
3
08:53:33
09:00:04
09:11:18
M35-39
3
08:42:02
09:01:53
09:20:26
M40-44
3
08:54:46
09:06:20
09:20:34
M45-49
3
09:29:02
09:39:57
09:47:06
M50-54
3
09:42:17
09:54:18
10:03:34
M55-59
2
09:45:40
09:53:31
10:01:23
M60-64
2
10:37:53
10:45:56
10:54:00
M65-69
1
11:13:49
11:13:49
11:13:49
M70-74
1
13:33:28
13:33:28
13:33:28
F18-24
1
10:22:44
10:22:44
10:22:44
F25-29
1
10:05:52
10:05:52
10:05:52
F30-34
2
09:58:04
10:01:15
10:04:27
F35-39
2
10:19:11
10:21:39
10:24:07
F40-44
2
09:51:25
10:06:32
10:21:40
F45-49
2
10:26:40
10:29:09
10:31:39
F50-54
1
11:35:43
11:35:43
11:35:43
F55-59
1
11:34:50
11:34:50
11:34:50
F60-64
1
12:18:12
12:18:12
12:18:12
F65-69
1
16:44:12
16:44:12
16:44:12
F70-74
1
13:40:13
13:40:13
13:40:13

Based on the athlete list I’ve estimated the distribution of slots at this race and from that automatic qualifying times before roll outs take place. Final numbers and times might vary a little. You can check and compare with other races on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Santa Rosa 2018
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Santa Rosa 2018

The top twenty in each age group give the clearest indication of the much faster front of pack race this year. For the women’s age divisions times don’t shift too far from the previous year’s results, but for the major male age groups the top twenty is consistently faster.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results from Ironman Santa Rosa 2018 on my Google Drive.

All Ironman Results and Statistics

A growing collection of results and statistics for the whole Ironman race calendar.

Find out what it takes to place in your age group or to qualify for the Ironman Worlds Championships in Kona.

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