Ironman Brazil 2016: Results and Analysis

This weekend Ironman was in Brazil for the 2016 South American Ironman Championship. It was a fast race in the pro ranks with the winner finishing comfortably under 8 hours. In the age group field results were closer to average, not deviating hugely from previous results. There were 75 Kona slots on offer at this championship event and qualifying times for these did trend faster than the race averages.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman Brazil 2016 Compared With 2006-2015

Starting with the split distributions from this year’s race. We can see they line up closely with the aggregated results form the last decade. The race appears to largely fall in line with previous results. As a side-note the 2011 results are excluded from all my calculations as the data in the athlete tracker is incorrect.

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman Brazil
Listed Athletes Swim Finish Swim DNS/DNF Bike Finish Bike DNF Run Finish Run DNF Overall DNS/DNF
2006 1053 976 7.3% 960 1.6% 938 2.3% 10.9%
2007 1260 1178 6.5% 1140 3.2% 1126 1.2% 10.6%
2008 1315 1235 6.1% 1162 5.9% 1185 % 9.9%
2009 1388 1263 9% 1235 2.2% 1209 2.1% 12.9%
2010 1626 1477 9.2% 1444 2.2% 1399 3.1% 14%
2011 1822 1557 14.5% 100% 0% 23.4%
2012 1929 1477 23.4% 1648 % 1383 16.1% 28.3%
2013 1924 1707 11.3% 1642 3.8% 1620 1.3% 15.4%
2014 1641 1552 5.4% 1556 % 1581 % 0%
2015 1905 1680 11.8% 1657 1.4% 1602 3.3% 15.9%
2016 1845 1644 10.9% 1597 2.9% 1556 2.6% 15.7%

Actually, several years have data issues. You can also note that 2008, 2011 and 2014 have some slight problems with timing data making it harder to calculate DNF or DNS numbers for those races. This year’s DNF and DNS rate doesn’t look to differ significantly with previous years where we have suitable data. Again, the race falls inline with the course averages.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Brazil 2016
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Brazil 2006-2015

A more detailed look at results by age groups confirms how similar this year’s results are to previous years. The run splits do trend a little faster, but I’d not consider it to be a significant difference in splits. The big differences can be seen in the male pro results, there’s a huge drop in times at this year’s event.

Top 10 Nationalities at Ironman Brazil
Count Percentage
Brazil 1283 69.5
Argentinia 311 16.9
Chile 93 5
United States 45 2.4
Paraguay 11 0.6
Peru 9 0.5
Uruguay 9 0.5
Canada 9 0.5
Italy 8 0.4
United Kingdom 8 0.4

The majority of athletes at the South American Ironman Championship are from South America. Numbers from outside of the continent are much smaller, the US being the largest country from outside the region.

Changes in Male Age Group Finishing Times by Place at Ironman Brazil
Changes in Female Age Group Finishing Times by Place at Ironman Brazil

Focussing on the prime male age groups as a means to track performance over the years shows a gradual trend towards faster times in Brazil. It’s a slow change and has been stable for the last 3-4 years. This year’s results appear to compare well with any of the last four years.

Ironman Brazil 2016 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
  Slots Winner Average Kona Qualifier Final Qualifier
M18-24 1 9:21:33 9:21:33 9:21:33
M25-29 3 9:07:20 9:14:50 9:21:59
M30-34 9 9:01:12 9:17:21 9:26:38
M35-39 13 8:54:50 9:12:26 9:28:03
M40-44 13 9:03:57 9:24:39 9:35:00
M45-49 8 9:10:58 9:38:14 9:50:37
M50-54 5 9:05:48 9:54:13 10:14:50
M55-59 3 10:14:35 10:24:14 10:29:28
M60-64 2 10:47:18 11:03:40 11:20:02
M65-69 1 11:21:05 11:21:05 11:21:05
F18-24 1 12:00:34 12:00:34 12:00:34
F25-29 2 9:44:26 9:52:54 10:01:22
F30-34 2 9:54:29 10:10:09 10:25:50
F35-39 2 9:58:42 10:02:42 10:06:42
F40-44 2 10:15:14 10:24:59 10:34:45
F45-49 2 10:34:16 10:46:58 10:59:41
F50-54 2 11:35:29 11:42:28 11:49:27
F55-59 1 13:17:49 13:17:49 13:17:49
F60-64 1 12:21:46 12:21:46 12:21:46

The table above estimates Kona slots based on competitor numbers (exact start numbers will determine the final distribution). Based on those numbers I’ve indicated the automatic qualification times, assuming there are no roll downs today. You can see how this compares with previous years and other races on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Brazil 2016
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Brazil 2016

Broadly, this year’s qualification and top twenty age group times trended faster than the averages of the last decade. They follow a similar pattern to last year’s race; as we’ve seen the last 3-4 years have shown a very similar spread of results. For many age groups this was one of the faster qualifying years in Brazil.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results and splits from Ironman Brazil 2016 on my Google Drive.

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