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Ironman 70.3 Hawaii 2018: Age Group Results and Kona Qualification

There’s a small gap in my Kona qualification data – a selection of Ironman 70.3 races that carry Kona slots for their fastest age groupers. Over 100 qualification slots are available this way and are not included in any of my analyses. I’m going to start correcting this omission with a quick review of results from Ironman 70.3 Hawaii, which took place back in June. I’ve collected over a decade of results from the race to examine how this year compares.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman 70.3 Hawaii 2018 Compared with 2008-2017

Jumping straight into the distributions it’s clear this year’s race trends slower than the amalgamated data from the previous decade. This is mainly due to a bike that’s slower at the median along with a little help from a slower run. Swim times trend slightly faster at the mid point, but are consistent at the front of the field.

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman 70.3 Hawaii
Year
Listed Athletes
Swim Finish
Swim DNS/DNF
Bike Finish
Bike DNF
Run Finish
Run DNF
Overall DNS/DNF
2008
1064
1064
1027
3.5%
1011
1.6%
5%
2009
1098
1096
0.2%
1072
2.2%
1054
1.7%
4%
2010
1321
1318
0.2%
1288
2.3%
1270
1.4%
3.9%
2011
1420
1415
0.4%
1381
2.4%
1360
1.5%
4.2%
2012
1509
1502
0.5%
1457
3%
1437
1.4%
4.7%
2013
1554
1548
0.4%
1505
2.8%
1465
2.7%
5.7%
2014
1569
1560
0.6%
1536
1.5%
1482
3.5%
5.5%
2015
1582
1564
1.1%
1531
2.1%
1466
4.2%
7.3%
2016
1509
1496
0.9%
1471
1.7%
1419
3.5%
6%
2017
1254
1240
1.1%
1200
3.2%
1117
6.9%
10.9%
2018
1316
1303
1%
1272
2.4%
1204
5.3%
8.5%

DNF data is available for the last decade and shows that in recent years the run DNF rate has risen for the Hawaii race. Perhaps a change in course or timing had some impact here? Overall, this year’s race appears to have typical levels of DNF for the race at present.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman 70.3 Hawaii 2018
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman 70.3 Hawaii 2008-2017

Slower age group bike medians are the only clear difference compared with the past decade. Other numbers vary more and don’t show a strong trend.

Changes in Male Finishing Times by Position at Ironman 70.3 Hawaii
Changes in Female Finishing Times by Position at Ironman 70.3 Hawaii

There’s a lot of variability in age group times for specific positions over the last 10 years. This year does push towards the slower end of the range for many age group positions. As is often the case the impact is less noticeable at the front of the field where times are more consistent across the years of racing.

Ironman 70.3 Hawaii 2018 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
Age Group
Slots
Winner
Average Kona Qualifier
Final Qualifier
M18-24
1
05:04:24
05:04:24
05:04:24
M25-29
1
04:35:36
04:35:36
04:35:36
M30-34
2
04:27:38
04:28:11
04:28:44
M35-39
2
04:25:20
04:25:53
04:26:27
M40-44
2
04:29:00
04:38:11
04:47:23
M45-49
2
04:21:46
04:23:18
04:24:51
M50-54
2
04:39:52
04:43:22
04:46:52
M55-59
2
04:48:37
04:55:58
05:03:20
M60-64
1
05:00:23
05:00:23
05:00:23
M65-69
1
05:47:28
05:47:28
05:47:28
M70-74
1
06:04:58
06:04:58
06:04:58
M75-79
1
06:26:01
06:26:01
06:26:01
F18-24
1
05:22:46
05:22:46
05:22:46
F25-29
1
05:15:18
05:15:18
05:15:18
F30-34
1
04:56:19
04:56:19
04:56:19
F35-39
1
04:52:32
04:52:32
04:52:32
F40-44
1
04:57:14
04:57:14
04:57:14
F45-49
1
05:15:48
05:15:48
05:15:48
F50-54
1
05:07:39
05:07:39
05:07:39
F55-59
1
05:27:09
05:27:09
05:27:09
F60-64
1
05:42:18
05:42:18
05:42:18
F65-69
1
06:15:15
06:15:15
06:15:15
F70-74
1
06:42:20
06:42:20
06:42:20

Based on the start numbers I’ve applied what appears to be the current Ironman allocation method to the 30 age group Kona slots on offer. From that I’ve calculated automatic qualifying times. Roll down will affect these times and in the case of Ironman 70.3 racing it should be noted that athletes must choose between qualifying for Kona or the 70.3 Worlds. You can look at other Kona statistics on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman 70.3 Hawaii 2018
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman 70.3 Hawaii 2018

Times for the top twenty in each age group vary but often trend behind the average, particularly for the younger age groups. The top placings, those close to the Kona slots, are more likely to be average or above. Further back in the field this year appears to have been slower.

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