Ironman Brazil 2016: Results and Analysis
This weekend Ironman was in Brazil for the 2016 South American Ironman Championship. It was a fast race in the pro ranks with the winner finishing comfortably under 8 hours. In the age group field results were closer to average, not deviating hugely from previous results. There were 75 Kona slots on offer at this championship event and qualifying times for these did trend faster than the race averages.
Starting with the split distributions from this year’s race. We can see they line up closely with the aggregated results form the last decade. The race appears to largely fall in line with previous results. As a side-note the 2011 results are excluded from all my calculations as the data in the athlete tracker is incorrect.
| Listed Athletes | Swim Finish | Swim DNS/DNF | Bike Finish | Bike DNF | Run Finish | Run DNF | Overall DNS/DNF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 1053 | 976 | 7.3% | 960 | 1.6% | 938 | 2.3% | 10.9% |
| 2007 | 1260 | 1178 | 6.5% | 1140 | 3.2% | 1126 | 1.2% | 10.6% |
| 2008 | 1315 | 1235 | 6.1% | 1162 | 5.9% | 1185 | % | 9.9% |
| 2009 | 1388 | 1263 | 9% | 1235 | 2.2% | 1209 | 2.1% | 12.9% |
| 2010 | 1626 | 1477 | 9.2% | 1444 | 2.2% | 1399 | 3.1% | 14% |
| 2011 | 1822 | 1557 | 14.5% | 100% | 0% | 23.4% | ||
| 2012 | 1929 | 1477 | 23.4% | 1648 | % | 1383 | 16.1% | 28.3% |
| 2013 | 1924 | 1707 | 11.3% | 1642 | 3.8% | 1620 | 1.3% | 15.4% |
| 2014 | 1641 | 1552 | 5.4% | 1556 | % | 1581 | % | 0% |
| 2015 | 1905 | 1680 | 11.8% | 1657 | 1.4% | 1602 | 3.3% | 15.9% |
| 2016 | 1845 | 1644 | 10.9% | 1597 | 2.9% | 1556 | 2.6% | 15.7% |
Actually, several years have data issues. You can also note that 2008, 2011 and 2014 have some slight problems with timing data making it harder to calculate DNF or DNS numbers for those races. This year’s DNF and DNS rate doesn’t look to differ significantly with previous years where we have suitable data. Again, the race falls inline with the course averages.
A more detailed look at results by age groups confirms how similar this year’s results are to previous years. The run splits do trend a little faster, but I’d not consider it to be a significant difference in splits. The big differences can be seen in the male pro results, there’s a huge drop in times at this year’s event.
| Count | Percentage | |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 1283 | 69.5 |
| Argentinia | 311 | 16.9 |
| Chile | 93 | 5 |
| United States | 45 | 2.4 |
| Paraguay | 11 | 0.6 |
| Peru | 9 | 0.5 |
| Uruguay | 9 | 0.5 |
| Canada | 9 | 0.5 |
| Italy | 8 | 0.4 |
| United Kingdom | 8 | 0.4 |
The majority of athletes at the South American Ironman Championship are from South America. Numbers from outside of the continent are much smaller, the US being the largest country from outside the region.
Focussing on the prime male age groups as a means to track performance over the years shows a gradual trend towards faster times in Brazil. It’s a slow change and has been stable for the last 3-4 years. This year’s results appear to compare well with any of the last four years.
| Slots | Winner | Average Kona Qualifier | Final Qualifier | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M18-24 | 1 | 9:21:33 | 9:21:33 | 9:21:33 |
| M25-29 | 3 | 9:07:20 | 9:14:50 | 9:21:59 |
| M30-34 | 9 | 9:01:12 | 9:17:21 | 9:26:38 |
| M35-39 | 13 | 8:54:50 | 9:12:26 | 9:28:03 |
| M40-44 | 13 | 9:03:57 | 9:24:39 | 9:35:00 |
| M45-49 | 8 | 9:10:58 | 9:38:14 | 9:50:37 |
| M50-54 | 5 | 9:05:48 | 9:54:13 | 10:14:50 |
| M55-59 | 3 | 10:14:35 | 10:24:14 | 10:29:28 |
| M60-64 | 2 | 10:47:18 | 11:03:40 | 11:20:02 |
| M65-69 | 1 | 11:21:05 | 11:21:05 | 11:21:05 |
| F18-24 | 1 | 12:00:34 | 12:00:34 | 12:00:34 |
| F25-29 | 2 | 9:44:26 | 9:52:54 | 10:01:22 |
| F30-34 | 2 | 9:54:29 | 10:10:09 | 10:25:50 |
| F35-39 | 2 | 9:58:42 | 10:02:42 | 10:06:42 |
| F40-44 | 2 | 10:15:14 | 10:24:59 | 10:34:45 |
| F45-49 | 2 | 10:34:16 | 10:46:58 | 10:59:41 |
| F50-54 | 2 | 11:35:29 | 11:42:28 | 11:49:27 |
| F55-59 | 1 | 13:17:49 | 13:17:49 | 13:17:49 |
| F60-64 | 1 | 12:21:46 | 12:21:46 | 12:21:46 |
The table above estimates Kona slots based on competitor numbers (exact start numbers will determine the final distribution). Based on those numbers I’ve indicated the automatic qualification times, assuming there are no roll downs today. You can see how this compares with previous years and other races on my Kona qualification page.
Broadly, this year’s qualification and top twenty age group times trended faster than the averages of the last decade. They follow a similar pattern to last year’s race; as we’ve seen the last 3-4 years have shown a very similar spread of results. For many age groups this was one of the faster qualifying years in Brazil.
You can access a spreadsheet of the full results and splits from Ironman Brazil 2016 on my Google Drive.
