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Ironman New Zealand 2018: Age Group Results and Kona Qualification

Ironman New Zealand, the first race of the 2018 season, took place this weekend. A long standing race that draws a field of around 1,200 athletes with 40 Kona slots on offer. Conditions have, on occasion, taken their toll on race day, resulting in adjustments and rescheduling in the past. This year’s race looks to have been pretty much by the book with times trending slightly behind past results.

Note that I’ve excluded the 2012 race from this analysis as it was shortened due to race day conditions.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman New Zealand 2018 Compared with 2008-2017

Comparing the distribution of splits at this year’s race with the previous decade shows a small trend towards slower overall splits. This appear to come from the run, where times also trend slower than the aggregated data. Both swim and bike split distributions fall in line with the past results. What difference there is in the final distribution is small, around 10 minutes at the median, and appears to be the result of a heavy tail with a high proportion of finishers over the 13:00 mark

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman New Zealand
Year
Listed Athletes
Swim Finish
Swim DNS/DNF
Bike Finish
Bike DNF
Run Finish
Run DNF
Overall DNS/DNF
2003
1076
955
11.2%
954
0.1%
911
4.5%
15.3%
2004
1344
1254
6.7%
1224
2.4%
1185
3.2%
11.8%
2005
1175
1139
3.1%
1140
%
1111
2.5%
5.4%
2007
1005
993
1.2%
993
0%
967
2.6%
3.8%
2008
1163
1085
6.7%
1068
1.6%
1038
2.8%
10.7%
2009
1358
1274
6.2%
1263
0.9%
1235
2.2%
9.1%
2010
1253
1137
9.3%
1137
0%
1119
1.6%
10.7%
2011
1312
1278
2.6%
1279
%
1251
2.2%
4.6%
2013
1432
1311
8.4%
1288
1.8%
1224
5%
14.5%
2014
1586
1559
1.7%
1553
0.4%
1497
3.6%
5.6%
2015
1131
1122
0.8%
1082
3.6%
1050
3%
7.2%
2016
1253
1247
0.5%
1224
1.8%
1164
4.9%
7.1%
2017
1253
1119
10.7%
1045
6.6%
996
4.7%
20.5%
2018
1144
1136
0.7%
1117
1.7%
1078
3.5%
6%

DNF numbers for this years race are comparable with previous years and perhaps on the low side. 2014 and 2015 offer the best comparison as numbers for most other years look to include DNS as well. Regular DNF numbers would suggest a typical year of racing.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman New Zealand 2018
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman New Zealand 2008-2017

As with the distributions above, it’s on the run splits where we see the biggest difference in age division medians. Swim and bike are broadly similar with variations across age groups.

Top 10 Nationalities at Ironman New Zealand
Country
Count
Percentage
New Zealand
542
47.4
Australia
212
18.5
United States
83
7.3
United Kingdom
64
5.6
Japan
44
3.8
China
24
2.1
Canada
24
2.1
Hong Kong
15
1.3
France
14
1.2
Singapore
10
0.9
Ironman New Zealand 2018 Predicted Kona Qualifiers by Country
Country
Percentage of Slots
Percentage of Field
New Zealand
50.0
47.4
Australia
22.5
18.5
United States
17.5
7.3
Germany
2.5
0.6
Brazil
2.5
0.3
France
2.5
1.2

New Zealand attracted quite a broad spread of athletes to the race with less than half the competitors racing at home. They held their own and took an equivalent proportion of Kona slots with a number of other nations outperforming their turn out.

Changes in Male Finishing Times by Position at Ironman New Zealand
Changes in Female Finishing Times by Position at Ironman New Zealand

Following the trends in results over a decade at Ironman New Zealand puts this year’s race somewhere in the middle. This does depend on position in the age groups – at the front of the race times tend to be towards the faster end of the spectrum, but further back in the pack and the race comes out slower.

Ironman New Zealand 2018 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
Age Group
Slots
Winner
Average Kona Qualifier
Final Qualifier
M18-24
1
10:04:19
10:04:19
10:04:19
M25-29
2
08:57:10
09:09:46
09:22:22
M30-34
2
08:55:05
09:05:20
09:15:35
M35-39
3
08:35:01
08:57:52
09:26:45
M40-44
4
08:59:25
09:19:34
09:32:41
M45-49
3
09:23:25
09:26:55
09:31:30
M50-54
3
09:48:54
09:59:26
10:05:32
M55-59
2
10:11:45
10:23:09
10:34:34
M60-64
2
10:45:26
10:49:53
10:54:21
M65-69
1
11:40:54
11:40:54
11:40:54
M70-74
1
12:30:53
12:30:53
12:30:53
F18-24
1
10:45:32
10:45:32
10:45:32
F25-29
1
10:20:44
10:20:44
10:20:44
F30-34
2
10:16:46
10:25:27
10:34:09
F35-39
2
09:41:46
10:00:48
10:19:51
F40-44
2
10:39:11
10:48:10
10:57:10
F45-49
2
09:57:34
09:57:51
09:58:09
F50-54
2
11:01:00
11:03:29
11:05:59
F55-59
1
10:45:16
10:45:16
10:45:16
F60-64
1
11:10:18
11:10:18
11:10:18
F65-69
1
15:41:04
15:41:04
15:41:04

Based on my estimated slot allocation I’ve calculated the likely automatic qualifying times for each age group at the race. As always numbers may vary slightly and roll downs will impact the final qualifying times where they happen. You can compare these numbers with other races on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman New Zealand 2018
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman New Zealand 2018

Looking at the top twenty in each age group, results vary around the average for the race. For those at the very front, on the age group podium, times tend to be ahead of the average, but behind that they vary either side depending on age group.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results from Ironman New Zealand 2018 on my Google Drive.

All Ironman Results and Statistics

A growing collection of results and statistics for the whole Ironman race calendar.

Find out what it takes to place in your age group or to qualify for the Ironman Worlds Championships in Kona.

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