CoachCox

Ironman Wales 2018: Age Group Results and Kona Qualification

Another big weekend of Ironman racing has finished. First up for analysis is Ironman Wales – one of the toughest courses on the Ironman calendar. Wales has grown in reputation and numbers over the year and is now a large race with over 2,000 athletes competing for the standard 40 Kona slots on offer. Conditions in Tenby have varied a lot over past races, this year looks to have been a good year for racing on the course.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman Wales 2018 Compared with 2011-2017

The distribution of splits from this year’s race trends slower than the historical results. The difference is small and insignificant for swim and bike, but more distinct on the run and this carries through to the overall splits. So a slightly slower year thanks in the main part to a slower run distribution.

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman Wales
Year
Listed Athletes
Swim Finish
Swim DNS/DNF
Bike Finish
Bike DNF
Run Finish
Run DNF
Overall DNS/DNF
2011
1508
1266
16%
1198
5.4%
1122
6.3%
25.6%
2012
1314
1312
0.2%
1296
1.2%
1215
6.3%
7.5%
2013
1677
1432
14.6%
1370
4.3%
1280
6.6%
23.7%
2014
2085
1774
14.9%
1707
3.8%
1612
5.6%
22.7%
2015
2030
1728
14.9%
1664
3.7%
1551
6.8%
23.5%
2016
1915
1677
12.4%
1618
3.5%
1575
2.7%
17.8%
2017
1878
1854
1.3%
1714
7.6%
1615
5.8%
14%
2018
2208
2195
0.6%
2118
3.5%
2043
3.5%
7.5%

Although times distributed slower, the DNF rate for this year’s run are at the low end for the course. Swim and bike are similarly favourable suggesting a high completion rate on the course. So not a particularly fast year in Tenby, but one with good racing conditions.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Wales 2018
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Wales 2011-2017

As with the distributions it’s only the run medians where we see a clear picture of a slower race. The smaller differences in swim and bike distributions show up as a more variable pattern of median split times across age groups.

Top 10 Nationalities at Ironman Wales
Country
Count
Percentage
United Kingdom
2049
85.8
Ireland
76
3.2
Germany
42
1.8
France
29
1.2
United States
22
0.9
Belgium
21
0.9
Spain
15
0.6
Switzerland
12
0.5
Canada
12
0.5
South Africa
12
0.5
Ironman Wales 2018 Predicted Kona Qualifiers by Country
Country
Percentage of Slots
Percentage of Field
United Kingdom
62.5
85.8
Germany
15.0
1.8
France
5.0
1.2
Belgium
5.0
0.9
Ireland
2.5
3.2
Switzerland
2.5
0.5
Spain
2.5
0.6
Finland
2.5
0.1
Poland
2.5
0.5

Wales draws a big home field with a smaller range of other nationalities also present. Most slots stay in the UK with Germany taking the next largest portion.

Changes in Male Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Wales
Changes in Female Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Wales

Tracking times for specific positions over the last 8 years of racing puts 2018 somewhere in the middle ground. Faster than last year’s race, but not the fastest times for this course.

Ironman Wales 2018 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
Age Group
Slots
Winner
Average Kona Qualifier
Final Qualifier
M18-24
2
10:07:46
10:16:01
10:24:16
M25-29
3
09:49:58
09:57:52
10:08:22
M30-34
4
09:43:21
09:58:11
10:11:07
M35-39
4
09:53:03
09:59:44
10:04:07
M40-44
6
10:09:40
10:23:35
10:33:19
M45-49
4
10:08:57
10:17:44
10:22:44
M50-54
3
10:46:13
11:10:51
11:28:45
M55-59
2
10:47:39
11:03:46
11:19:53
M60-64
1
12:03:29
12:03:29
12:03:29
M65-69
1
13:05:02
13:05:02
13:05:02
M70-74
1
14:44:17
14:44:17
14:44:17
F18-24
1
11:58:48
11:58:48
11:58:48
F25-29
1
11:36:39
11:36:39
11:36:39
F30-34
1
11:00:34
11:00:34
11:00:34
F35-39
1
11:34:24
11:34:24
11:34:24
F40-44
1
11:31:19
11:31:19
11:31:19
F45-49
1
11:47:01
11:47:01
11:47:01
F50-54
1
12:12:37
12:12:37
12:12:37
F55-59
1
12:28:19
12:28:19
12:28:19
F60-64
1
15:15:29
15:15:29
15:15:29

Based on the start numbers for this race I’ve estimated the Kona slot allocations for each age group. It’s recently become apparent that Ironman has updated their allocation methodology. I’m not yet able to precisely replicate the approach so it’s important to note that my figures are a close, but not exact match for Ironman’s allocation. Additionally roll downs will affect the final qualifying times in some age groups. You can compare these figures with other races on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Wales 2018
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Wales 2018

Times were average for the top twenty in most age groups. There are some exceptions though: M18-24, M55-59, M60-64 and F55-59 all outperformed there past results. For most age groups though it was a typical year of racing on the Tenby course.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results from Ironman Wales 2018 on my Google Drive.

All Ironman Results and Statistics

A growing collection of results and statistics for the whole Ironman race calendar.

Find out what it takes to place in your age group or to qualify for the Ironman Worlds Championships in Kona.

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