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Ironman Cozumel 2018: Age Group Results and Kona Qualification

After a week’s wait for results to appear within Ironman.com, I’m finally analysing the age group data from Ironman Cozumel 2018. Cozumel is a mid-sized race that offers the standard 40 Kona slots for age group athletes. Race times have varied over the years, but Cozumel’s results tend to be mid-range for the Ironman series.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman Cozumel 2018 Compared with 2009-2017

This year’s race appears to have trended very slightly slower then the previous 9 years of results. It’s a small shift in the medians at every stage and certainly nothing that should be considered significant. With the exception of the swim, where there have been some distinctly fast years in the water, the top 5% of the field trends much the same as in the past. Overall the distributions are quite similar to the grouped historical data.

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman Cozumel
Year
Listed Athletes
Swim Finish
Swim DNS/DNF
Bike Finish
Bike DNF
Run Finish
Run DNF
Overall DNS/DNF
2009
1927
1299
32.6%
1299
1298
0.1%
31.6%
2010
2314
1536
33.6%
1536
1564
29.3%
2011
2300
1840
20%
1788
2.8%
1733
3.1%
23.8%
2012
2664
1882
29.4%
1745
7.3%
1756
32.9%
2013
2485
1699
31.6%
1847
1816
1.7%
25.5%
2014
2292
1906
16.8%
1821
4.5%
1700
6.6%
25.8%
2015
1586
1557
1.8%
1469
5.7%
1389
5.4%
12.4%
2016
1390
1311
5.7%
1256
4.2%
1197
4.7%
13.8%
2017
1191
1184
0.6%
1183
0.1%
1183
0.6%
2018
1689
1644
2.7%
1563
4.9%
1488
4.8%
11.9%

DNF numbers also look quite reasonable when compared with past races. To help clarify I’ve now marked years which have good DNF data, cleanly separated from DNS data, in blue and those years where DNS and DNF numbers mix together in red. Comparing blue with blue we can see similar numbers most years.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Cozumel 2018
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Cozumel 2009-2017

Age group medians follow a similar pattern to the distributions. However, when the difference in current medians and the past is so close there’s a lot of variation over the age groups. In some instances medians were slightly faster this year and in others slower.

Top 10 Nationalities at Ironman Cozumel
Country
Count
Percentage
Mexico
606
31.8
United States
570
29.9
Canada
106
5.6
Germany
67
3.5
Colombia
58
3
United Kingdom
52
2.7
Costa Rica
50
2.6
Brazil
43
2.3
Argentinia
39
2
Ecuador
29
1.5
Ironman Cozumel 2018 Predicted Kona Qualifiers by Country
Country
Percentage of Slots
Percentage of Field
United States
32.5
29.9
Canada
12.5
5.6
Germany
12.5
3.5
Brazil
10.0
2.3
Mexico
5.0
31.8
United Kingdom
5.0
2.7
Czech Republic
2.5
0.1
Argentinia
2.5
2.0
Switzerland
2.5
0.9
Belgium
2.5
0.7
Panama
2.5
0.3
Japan
2.5
0.7
France
2.5
1.2

Cozumel draws quite a wide field with about a third of athletes from outside North America. Slots are well distributed among these nationalities.

Changes in Male Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Cozumel
Changes in Female Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Cozumel

Tracking the times for specific age group positions over the last decade shows how variable the race has been. Front runner times in the largest age groups are more consistent, but further back and in smaller age groups there’s been a wide range of results. This year looks to stand around the middle of these results.

Ironman Cozumel 2018 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
Age Group
Slots
Winner
Average Kona Qualifier
Final Qualifier
M18-24
1
10:04:34
10:04:34
10:04:34
M25-29
2
09:17:13
09:18:54
09:20:36
M30-34
3
09:12:00
09:13:32
09:16:21
M35-39
4
08:56:14
08:58:46
09:03:02
M40-44
4
09:03:33
09:14:33
09:23:33
M45-49
4
09:15:40
09:25:05
09:31:32
M50-54
3
09:35:41
09:43:11
09:50:18
M55-59
2
09:51:30
10:01:55
10:12:21
M60-64
1
10:55:03
10:55:03
10:55:03
M65-69
1
12:49:40
12:49:40
12:49:40
M70-74
1
12:46:52
12:46:52
12:46:52
F18-24
1
10:41:16
10:41:16
10:41:16
F25-29
1
10:14:29
10:14:29
10:14:29
F30-34
1
10:09:37
10:09:37
10:09:37
F35-39
2
09:56:39
10:03:58
10:11:18
F40-44
1
09:54:01
09:54:01
09:54:01
F45-49
1
11:11:19
11:11:19
11:11:19
F50-54
1
11:19:28
11:19:28
11:19:28
F55-59
1
11:47:23
11:47:23
11:47:23
F60-64
1
12:33:21
12:33:21
12:33:21
F65-69
1
13:56:26
13:56:26
13:56:26
F70-74
1
16:30:24
16:30:24
16:30:24

Based on the start list I’ve calculated the slot allocation using what I believe to be the current method. From that I’m able to calculate the automatic qualification times for each age group. Precise numbers may vary a little and I cannot factor in roll down. you can compare this with other Ironman races on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Cozumel 2018
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Cozumel 2018

Finally the age group top twenty times mostly trend close to or slightly ahead of the course averages. It varies a little, there are always age groups that prove an exception. Overall this year looks to have been typical for Cozumel.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results from Ironman Cozumel 2018 on my Google Drive.

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