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Ironman Cairns 2018: Age Group Results and Kona Qualification

The other Ironman race of the weekend was the Asia-Pacific Championship in Cairns. Ironman Cairns is a smaller race, with just over 1,000 competitors, but as a Championship it comes with 80 Kona slots fo the age groups. On paper that reads like good odds, but qualifying still takes a respectable time.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman Cairns 2018 Compared with 2012-2017

Comparing the distributions of this year’s results with those from the previous six years shows similar patterns. The greater bulk of data in the older results smooths the curves out more, but checking median and other percentile timings places these results closely in line. Perhaps the median splits are slightly faster than usual, but it’s a very small margin if so.

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman Cairns
Year
Listed Athletes
Swim Finish
Swim DNS/DNF
Bike Finish
Bike DNF
Run Finish
Run DNF
Overall DNS/DNF
2012
805
798
0.9%
782
2%
752
3.8%
6.5%
2013
1226
1209
1.4%
1187
1.8%
1140
4%
6.9%
2014
1275
1264
0.9%
1230
2.7%
1195
2.8%
6.3%
2015
880
768
12.7%
747
2.7%
705
5.6%
19.9%
2016
1434
1415
1.3%
1376
2.8%
1307
5%
8.9%
2017
1112
1112
1086
2.3%
1041
4.1%
7.2%
2018
1056
1040
1.5%
1009
3%
964
4.5%
9.8%

Most years I’ve managed to obtain clear DNF and DNS numbers for the race, so I’ve got quite an accurate history of DNF figures for Cairns. This year looks to be at the high end of DNF numbers for the race (2015 figures include DNS and DNF).

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Cairns 2018
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Cairns 2012-2017

As with the distribution, most age groups follow a similar pattern with median splits lining up closely with previous results OF course at the age group level there’s some variation, especially when a particular division is small.

Top 10 Nationalities at Ironman Cairns
Country
Count
Percentage
Australia
665
57.6
Japan
157
13.6
China
82
7.1
New Zealand
70
6.1
United Kingdom
32
2.8
United States
15
1.3
Singapore
13
1.1
Thailand
11
1
Hong Kong
10
0.9
Sweden
9
0.8
Ironman Cairns 2018 Predicted Kona Qualifiers by Country
Country
Percentage of Slots
Percentage of Field
Australia
61.3
57.6
Japan
17.5
13.6
New Zealand
15.0
6.1
United States
1.3
1.3
United Kingdom
1.3
2.8
Ireland
1.3
0.5
Brazil
1.3
0.3
Hong Kong
1.3
0.9

Cairns draws quite a broad field, mostly from the Asia-Pacific region though. While most slots stay at home, Japan and New Zealand take the next biggest shares.

Changes in Male Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Cairns
Changes in Female Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Cairns

There’s been a lot of variation in times for age group placing in Cairns. As with most races, this is not so much at the very front, but more noticeable further back. some of this comes from the variance of a smaller field. Some from variations in course and condition over the years. At least when looking towards the front portion of the race times fall in line with the last couple of years.

Ironman Cairns 2018 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
Age Group
Slots
Winner
Average Kona Qualifier
Final Qualifier
M18-24
2
10:32:23
10:43:31
10:54:40
M25-29
3
09:34:17
09:37:09
09:39:05
M30-34
7
09:03:10
09:14:32
09:24:56
M35-39
9
08:59:00
09:21:12
09:35:41
M40-44
10
09:02:57
09:22:10
09:40:49
M45-49
9
09:01:00
09:35:34
10:09:20
M50-54
7
09:47:18
10:08:47
10:26:03
M55-59
4
10:01:51
10:14:59
10:31:58
M60-64
3
11:26:36
11:29:47
11:31:54
M65-69
2
11:19:16
11:22:57
11:26:38
M70-74
1
13:45:10
13:45:10
13:45:10
M75-79
1
14:32:31
14:32:31
14:32:31
F18-24
1
12:29:34
12:29:34
12:29:34
F25-29
2
10:15:21
10:16:28
10:17:36
F30-34
3
09:58:00
10:03:10
10:10:59
F35-39
3
10:04:59
10:16:25
10:22:39
F40-44
4
09:56:12
10:27:30
10:44:18
F45-49
3
10:38:49
10:43:35
10:49:10
F50-54
2
10:58:19
10:59:01
10:59:43
F55-59
2
12:21:36
12:44:30
13:07:24
F60-64
1
12:53:30
12:53:30
12:53:30
F65-69
1
15:57:30
15:57:30
15:57:30

Based on the slot count and start numbers I’ve estimated the slot allocation at this year’s race and from that the automatic qualifying times in each age group. Exact numbers may vary and roll down will affect final qualifiers. You can compare tis with other races on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Cairns 2018
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Cairns 2018

Finally, the top twenty times for each age group. There’s some variation, but times fall mostly ahead of the average and within close range of the 2017 results. the last few years seem to have been quite consistent with respect to likely qualifying times.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results from Ironman Cairns 2018 on my Google Drive.

All Ironman Results and Statistics

A growing collection of results and statistics for the whole Ironman race calendar.

Find out what it takes to place in your age group or to qualify for the Ironman Worlds Championships in Kona.

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