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Ironman Canada 2018: Age Group Results and Kona Qualification

Ironman Canada is my second race analysis of the week. Canada drew a field of around 1500 athletes for the standard allocation of 40 age group Kona slots. The course has never been particularly fast, but this year’s change to the bike route appear to have slowed things even further.

Distribution of Finisher Splits at Ironman Canada 2018 Compared with 2013-2017

The impact of the new bike course is quite clear in the distribution of splits. A much slower bike and a much slower run following it, which naturally means the overall results trend a lot slower. As well as course changes, conditions were hot which likely helps account for the large shift in run times.

DNS and DNF Rates at Ironman Canada
Year
Listed Athletes
Swim Finish
Swim DNS/DNF
Bike Finish
Bike DNF
Run Finish
Run DNF
Overall DNS/DNF
2013
2171
2122
2.3%
2065
2.7%
1985
3.9%
8.6%
2014
1899
1852
2.5%
1752
5.4%
1679
4.2%
11.6%
2015
1948
1719
11.8%
1540
10.4%
1502
2.5%
22.8%
2016
1405
1254
10.7%
1199
4.4%
1130
5.8%
19.6%
2017
1271
1263
0.6%
1201
4.9%
1147
4.5%
9.7%
2018
1470
1456
1%
1342
7.8%
1187
11.5%
20.8%

With a tough course and conditions we see increases in bike and more significantly run DNF rates at the 2018 race. Bearing in mind the mix of DNS and DNF numbers in races before 2016 this year’s race has the highest levels of DNF for this event.

Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Canada 2018
Median Splits by Age Group at Ironman Canada 2013-2017

The age group medians naturally follow the distributions’s trends with slower bike and run splits.

Top 10 Nationalities at Ironman Canada
Country
Count
Percentage
United States
843
51.8
Canada
491
30.2
Mexico
55
3.4
United Kingdom
45
2.8
Australia
17
1
Costa Rica
16
1
Germany
14
0.9
Spain
11
0.7
Japan
10
0.6
New Zealand
10
0.6
Ironman Canada 2018 Predicted Kona Qualifiers by Country
Country
Percentage of Slots
Percentage of Field
United States
50.0
51.8
Canada
30.0
30.2
New Zealand
5.0
0.6
Brazil
2.5
0.4
Spain
2.5
0.7
Ireland
2.5
0.4
Sweden
2.5
0.3
Germany
2.5
0.9

The majority of athletes are North American, but roughly a fifth come from further afield.

Changes in Male Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Canada
Changes in Female Finishing Times by Position at Ironman Canada

Tracking the changes in times for specific age group positions shows a little more variation across the age groups. The largest male age groups most clearly show a slowing at this year’s race, but for men under 30 and for a number of female age groups the pattern is less consistent. Some faired better on the new course and in the heat than others.

Ironman Canada 2018 Predicted Kona Qualification Times
Age Group
Slots
Winner
Average Kona Qualifier
Final Qualifier
M18-24
1
10:36:31
10:36:31
10:36:31
M25-29
2
09:26:02
09:27:49
09:29:36
M30-34
3
09:04:21
09:42:20
10:01:51
M35-39
3
09:40:24
10:02:37
10:17:30
M40-44
3
10:22:31
10:31:34
10:48:24
M45-49
3
10:02:31
10:07:52
10:10:44
M50-54
3
10:53:58
11:08:34
11:17:06
M55-59
2
11:11:13
11:14:23
11:17:33
M60-64
1
11:17:38
11:17:38
11:17:38
M65-69
1
12:36:47
12:36:47
12:36:47
M70-74
1
14:50:46
14:50:46
14:50:46
F18-24
1
10:54:33
10:54:33
10:54:33
F25-29
2
11:24:53
11:32:13
11:39:34
F30-34
1
10:35:43
10:35:43
10:35:43
F35-39
2
10:34:36
10:54:45
11:14:55
F40-44
2
10:49:02
11:03:47
11:18:32
F45-49
2
11:03:45
11:26:19
11:48:53
F50-54
2
11:34:42
11:50:33
12:06:25
F55-59
1
12:57:49
12:57:49
12:57:49
F60-64
1
13:43:11
13:43:11
13:43:11
F65-69
1
16:19:06
16:19:06
16:19:06
F70-74
1
16:59:28
16:59:28
16:59:28

Based on the start list, I’ve estimated the allocation of Kona slots and from that the automatic qualifying times. Actual numbers may vary and roll down will affect the final qualifying times. You can compare this with other races on my Kona qualification page.

Top Twenty Male Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Canada 2018
Top Twenty Female Performances and Kona Qualification by Age Group at Ironman Canada 2018

The top twenty in most age groups are the slowest seen for this race. There are a few exceptions, the divisions mentioned previous, where they trend closer to the averages. Even so, the race is consistently a slower event.

You can access a spreadsheet of the full results from Ironman Canada 2018 on my Google Drive.

All Ironman Results and Statistics

A growing collection of results and statistics for the whole Ironman race calendar.

Find out what it takes to place in your age group or to qualify for the Ironman Worlds Championships in Kona.

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