Changes to Ironman Finishing Times As Athletes Age Up
How does moving up an age group affect qualification times? This question came up while I prepared a qualification analysis for an athlete. Intuitively we expect aging up, at least for older age groups, to result in slower qualification times. In turn that could mean it makes sense to wait until you move up for better qualifying odds.
This chart attempts to look at that question in detail by examining the differences in times between consecutive age groups. Each point represents the average difference in finishing time to the previous, younger age group. A range of age group placings are plotted to see how that affects the change too.
The initial chart plots all male data points. There’s already a clear increase in change as athletes move into older age groups. A range of controls allow us to filter the data and explore it in more detail. There are four main options:
- The first dropdown selects the gender on display.
- The first multiselect allows you to choose one or more set finishing positions within an age group. This includes a variable Final Qualifier position calculated using slot allocations.
- The next multiselect filters on race allowing you to narrow the chart down to one or more specific events.
- The final multiselect filters for race years on display.
A Clear Filters button resets the chart back to its original state showing all male data.
Using the controls and multiselects means you can decide how much data is on display and what you specifically want to look at. Most likely it’s an individual age group and how times trend there. Perhaps considering a few races, or those trends over a recent year.
Once filtered you can easily see how times change between each age group. Perhaps the key point to note is that slowing tends to happen in the 50s and accelerates in the 60 plus age groups. Prior to that changes are less consistent and not large enough to suggest waiting is a good strategy.
Play with the data yourself and come to your own conclusions.
